Kyle Larson carries a one-point lead over Denny Hamlin into Kansas Speedway, where recent races have made the final lap anything but predictable.

KANSAS CITY, Kan. — Three races into the NASCAR Cup Series Chase, almost nothing separates the two drivers at the top.

Kyle Larson arrives at Kansas Speedway holding the championship lead by just one point over Denny Hamlin. Joey Logano sits 16 points back after winning at Bristol, with Christopher Bell only one point behind him. From there, however, the gaps begin to widen quickly.

Kansas may be arriving at exactly the right time to shake things up.

Sunday’s Hollywood Casino 400 is the fourth race of the 10-race Chase and begins a stretch of three consecutive events on 1.5-mile tracks. That makes Kansas more than a one-week test; it could offer the first real indication of which teams are best positioned for the middle portion of the championship run.

And lately, Kansas has rarely waited until the middle of the race to create drama.

One lap can change everything

The winning pass has come in the final two laps in five of the last seven Cup races at Kansas, including four last-lap passes. Four of the last six races have also required overtime.

That trend continued in both of the most recent races.

Last fall, Hamlin appeared positioned to win after leading 159 laps, but late contact while battling Bubba Wallace opened the door for Chase Elliott, who surged through to win by just 0.069 seconds.

The spring race produced another late reversal. Larson took the white flag in front before Tyler Reddick passed him between Turns 3 and 4 on the final lap to claim the victory.

For the Chase contenders, that recent history carries an obvious warning: being fastest for 260 laps may not be enough.

Larson and Hamlin meet at one of their best tracks

The two drivers separated by a single point also happen to bring some of the strongest Kansas résumés in the field.

Hamlin owns four Kansas victories, the most in track history, and has recorded eight top-five finishes in his last 10 starts there. Across the two most recent Kansas races, he has led 290 of 547 laps — more than half of all laps completed.

Yet neither of those races ended with Hamlin in Victory Lane.

Larson’s record is similarly imposing. Since joining Hendrick Motorsports in 2021, he has won three times at Kansas and led 839 laps in 11 starts. He also enters Sunday as the only driver to open this Chase with three consecutive top-five finishes.

After winning at Gateway and finishing second at Bristol, Larson has turned what began as a nine-point deficit to Hamlin into a one-point advantage.

Kansas presents the next test of whether that momentum continues.

Toyota has reason for confidence

If Larson wants to stay on top, he may have to go through a particularly strong group of Toyotas.

Reddick returns as the defending spring winner and has now won twice in his last six Kansas starts. His 23XI Racing teammate Bubba Wallace also owns a victory here, while the organization has won four of the nine Kansas races in the Next Gen era with three different drivers.

That matters for Wallace in particular.

He enters Kansas 92 points behind Larson, but has four top-five finishes in his last eight starts at the track. Wallace said this week that a Kansas victory could “flip the script” on a Chase that has so far left him chasing a significant deficit.

Chase Briscoe may also see Kansas as an opportunity to recover. Since joining Joe Gibbs Racing, Briscoe has finished fourth or better in each of his three Kansas starts, including third in the spring. He arrives this weekend 87 points behind the leader after a difficult Bristol result.

Christopher Bell, meanwhile, sits just 17 points behind Larson and has finished eighth or better in eight of his last 10 Kansas races.

That combination of track history and current standings could make Toyota one of the biggest variables in Sunday’s championship fight.

Opportunity for those already losing ground

Kansas also arrives at an important moment for several Chase contenders who can’t afford many more quiet weekends.

Ryan Blaney sits 52 points behind Larson after his dominant Bristol run ended in contact with Carson Hocevar. Tyler Reddick is 61 points back despite his spring Kansas victory, while Hocevar, Briscoe and Wallace are already between 85 and 92 points behind the leader.

Further down, Austin Cindric, Chase Elliott, William Byron, Ryan Preece, Chris Buescher and Daniel Suárez all enter Kansas more than 100 points behind.

That doesn’t make Sunday an elimination race under the new Chase format. It does, however, make the opportunities increasingly valuable.

Elliott has perhaps the clearest chance to change his trajectory. He is the defending winner of this race, owns two Kansas victories and has finished inside the top 10 in six of his last seven starts at the track. His 9.81 career average finish is the best among active drivers with at least six Kansas starts.

Byron also arrives with results that look better than his current championship position. He and Hamlin are the only drivers to finish inside the top 10 in all five traditional 1.5-mile races this season, with Byron averaging a 6.2 finish in those events.

For drivers already staring at triple-digit deficits, Kansas offers the kind of track where a big points day could begin changing the conversation.

The first test of what comes next

Sunday begins a stretch that may reveal more about the Chase than the first three races did.

Darlington, Gateway and Bristol each presented distinctly different challenges. Kansas starts three consecutive races on 1.5-mile tracks, putting greater emphasis on the intermediate-track programs that still form a major part of the Cup schedule.

Larson enters that stretch with the points lead.

Hamlin enters one point behind him at one of his strongest tracks.

Logano arrives with the momentum of a Bristol victory. Bell remains within striking distance, while several drivers further back in the standings arrive at Kansas with both strong track histories and growing urgency.

And if recent Kansas races are any indication, none of that may matter until the final corner.

The Chase is beginning to separate.

Kansas could separate it further or pull it back together.